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Resilience at JRCNaouma KourtiDep. Head of UnitTechnology Innovation in securitySecurity, Space and Migration Directorate

The Joint Research Centre at a glance3000 staffAlmost 75% are scientistsand researchers.Headquarters in Brusselsand research facilitieslocated in5 Member States.

The science and knowledge service of the Commission Evidence-based scientific and technical support on policyrelevant areas. In support of other Commission services, EU Institutions andMember States. Independent of industrial and national interests (available andtailor made). to support EU policies withindependent evidence throughoutthe whole policy cycle.

Many Definitions of Resilience“the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb,accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner,including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures andfunctions. The resilience of a community in respect to potential hazard events is determinedby the degree to which the community has the necessary resources and is capable oforganizing itself both prior to and during times of need.” UNISDR“Resilience is the combination of civil preparedness and military capacity – a society’s ability to resist andrecover easily and quickly from these shocks through a combination of civilian, economic, commercial andmilitary factors”. NATOThe ability to adapt to changing conditions and withstand and rapidly recover from disruptiondue to emergencies. Whether it is resilience towards acts of terrorism, cyber-attacks,pandemics, and catastrophic natural disasters, our national preparedness is the sharedresponsibility of all levels of government, the private and non-profit sectors, and individualcitizens” DHS USA

Types of ResilienceTABLE 1:TYPES OF RESILIENCEResilience type according to subjectResilience type according to adversityIndividual ResilienceDisaster ResilienceEcological ResilienceCommunity ResilienceCritical Infrastructure ResilienceFinancial ResilienceOrganisational Resilienceetc.Earthquake ResilienceCBRN ResilienceConflict ResilienceCyber-threat Resilienceetc.

Resilience elementsSubject Individual Community Organisation Critical Infrastructure City etc.Adversity Spatial Temporal Origin One or Multiple events IntensityPositiveoutcome Absorb Adapt TransformOr any combinationOr any combination

Challenges of resilienceSubject InterdependenciesAdversity Cascading EffectsPositiveOutcome Lessons learnt fromothers

Union Policies on ResilienceResilient Energy UnionCyber ResilienceSecurity UnionExternal PoliciesResilience of EU's Financial InstitutionsEnvironmental PoliciesSpace Policy

Resilience in our DirectorateCommunitiesResilient togreatMigrationFlowsResilienceof Settlement MapsRisk AssessmentMeasurementsCybersecurity rk analyticsCBRNResilience ofAfricanCommunitiesGood PracticeInterdependenciesResilienceof ConflictResilience outsideEurope

RESILIENCE OF EUROPEAN SOCIETY

Resilience ofassetsResilience of theengineResilience ystemservicesWasteNatural capitalINSTITUTIONSHuman capital-Markets-Business and R&D-InfrastructuresSocial capital-PoliciesProductionprocess-CommunitiesBuilt capitalSHOCKSConsumptionInvestment

Action PlanSTEP 1Review of existing frameworks and indicator sets formeasuring resilienceSTEP 2Create a system matrix with types of shocks andingredients of the system

Step 3To assess the impact of a certain type of shock(colour coding) Which system variables are relevant for a given shock? Which ingredient of the system and which system variables would itaffect directly ? After the direct hit, which additional ingredients and (groups of)system variables would be affected ?

Resilience ingredientFinancialAssetscurrency crisis systemic bankingNatural capitalHuman capitalSocial capitalBuilt capitalEco system servicesEngineSocio system servicesMarketsInfrastructuresBusiness & ResearchPoliciesFinal entprimary impacttransmission channelSocial MigrationViolenceAgeingImpact by type of shockEnvironmentalPoverty Job loss EarthquakeFloodDrought Storm surgeDigitalisation Terroristic attack Economic HealthEnergy

Step 4Develop indicators of resilienceResilience indicators can be estimated as the dynamicresponse of system variables to disturbances by groups,city, region or country level.Possible estimation approaches:- Event study approach- Model-based approach

STEP 5Determine characteristics (drivers/determinants)of resilienceThe dashboard will display resilience characteristicsfor various entities (individual, cities, regions, )Level of entityIndividualCommunityCityNUTS3 region (provincia)NUTS2 region (regione)NUTS1CountryTechnological changeCharacteristic 1Characteristic 2Level of educationAverage level of educationAverage level of education Characteristic 1 Characteristic 2 Strength of local social ties Types of schools

Objectives of project on Resilience Develop indicators to monitor resilience of the EU invarious fields Promote the analysis of resilience in the policy makingprocess, assessing the impact of existing and new policieson stimulating resilience Do this by arranging and steering related JRC activitiesusing the common Resilience framework Involving also partner DGs, EU and internationalinstitutions and academic liaisons

2017 WorkplanSystem matrix and colour coding B1 all JRC units team with policy DGsMapping of JRC models into the system matrix Competence Centre on ModellingA test case (proof of concept) of the dashboard - B1and B3Workshop - Modelling of Physical, Economic and SocialSystems for Resilience Assessment (Brussels, end 2017)E2 E1, E4, E7, B1, and D6

2018 Workplan Goal: use and implement the conceptualframework Focus on the EU and the societal dimension Value existing JRC competences Work with partner DGs and involve externalpartners (e.g. academia)- Concentrate on 2 shocksMigration & Digitalization

RESILIENCEThe Joint Research Center organises the 2nd International workshoponModelling of Physical, Economic and Social Systemsfor Resilience Assessment14-16 December 2017BrusselsIn collaboration with

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Whether it is resilience towards acts of terrorism, cyber-attacks, pandemics, and catastrophic natural disasters, our national preparedness is the shared . citizens" DHS USA. TABLE 1:TYPES OF RESILIENCE Resilience type according to subject Resilience type according to adversity . Earthquake Resilience CBRN Resilience Conflict Resilience .